Few observers of African politics look to Namibia to anticipate continent-wide trends. On November 27 however, the country could become a bellwether when Namibians vote in presidential and parliamentary elections. The results will provide clues to three key questions whose consequences will reverberate beyond Namibia’s borders. First, the election will indicate whether the era of liberation movements that have dominated Southern Africa for decades is coming to an end. Second, Namibian voters will decide whether to elect a female president and shake up the all-male gatherings typically observed at meetings of African heads of state. Finally, the election will affect how Namibia manages its recent oil discoveries, seeking to defy the notion that natural resource wealth is a poisoned chalice rather than a blessing.
Namibia last dominated global news headlines in the 1980s when its people fought a bloody liberation war against the South African apartheid regime. Following independence in 1990, the country became a byword for political stability and stunning natural beauty sought by tourists. On the world’s stage, the Southern African nation of three million has long been overshadowed by South Africa – a neighbor with which it shares both economic ties and a bitter history of white minority-rule. But when Namibians go to the polls at the end of November, they will be voting in a country whose challenges and opportunities resemble those faced by its immediate neighbors. Although Namibia is a democracy with free and fair elections, it too has been ruled by a liberation-movement-turned-party that has held power since independence in 1990. It suffers from sky-scraping income inequality, precipitous youth unemployment, and a sense that the country’s political leaders have done a mediocre job. Namibian voters could transfigure all that by handing power to Namibia’s first female president at a time when the country seeks to exploit its natural resource wealth.
Is the era of liberation movements over?
An astonishing number of Southern African nations have only been governed by one political party since they gained independence. All presidents in Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, post-apartheid South Africa, and Zimbabwe have so far come from a single dominant party. Some of these countries do not elect their executives via free and fair elections. But among most that do, one party dominance has its roots in the anti-colonial struggle. In countries such as Namibia and South Africa, European settlers fought long and violent wars before agreeing to share power or giving it up altogether. These drawn-out conflicts produced comparatively more cohesive mass parties that have enjoyed sustained loyalty among voters.
The hegemonic position of parties such as the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa and South West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO) in Namibia had long seemed unassailable. All Namibian presidents have come from SWAPO, ordinarily gaining over three quarters of ballots cast. In the 2019 election, SWAPO’s parliamentary candidates garnered over 65 percent of the vote. This may now be changing. With most eligible voters born after independence, loyalty voting has begun to fade. Instead, voters across Southern Africa are increasingly concerned with bread-and-butter issues such as unemployment, poor service delivery, and corruption. They might be losing faith that the parties that brought them independence are up to the challenge.
When South Africa voted in May of this year, Nelson Mandela’s ANC barely climber over 40 percent of the vote, by far the worst result since the advent of democratic politics in 1994. In Angola, the ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) barely managed to cling to power in a deeply flawed 2022 election. Namibian voters’ support for SWAPO in this year’s election will indicate whether these poor showings were driven by country-specific context or whether they are part of a wider trend that could soon sweep the region.
Will Namibians elect their first female president?
Female heads of state have been rare across the world in general and in Africa in particular. In the decades since independence, fewer than a dozen women have served as presidents of African countries. Of these, only Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia was elected in country-wide elections, while the remaining female executives were either elected by parliamentary bodies or assumed office as vice presidents upon the death of their predecessors. Lack of female presidents is symptomatic of general attitudes towards female leaders. According to Afrobarometer, a pollster, around a quarter of respondents interviewed in thirty-nine African countries believe that men are inherently better political leaders than women.
The Namibian election will be a rare test of the extent to which gendered ideas about female politicians affect voters’ choices at the ballot box. SWAPO, Namibia’s dominant political party, nominated Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah as its first-ever female presidential candidate. She will face a slew of male competitors from smaller parties. The Namibian Constitution grants presidents far-reaching executive powers. Research suggests that seeing a female leader govern can change ordinary voters’ ideas about the role of women in politics. If elected, Nandi-Ndaitwah will have a unique opportunity to both fulfill her campaign promises and change long-standing views about women’s role in politics.
Can the oil curse be broken?
Many scholars are skeptical of the impact that natural resource wealth, particularly oil, has on developing countries’ politics. Nations such as Angola and Nigeria provide plentiful examples of what analysts call the “resource curse” – a vicious cycle in which oil wealth fuels violence and corruption rather than development. Given this paltry record, it is far from clear that the recent discovery of billions of barrels of crude just off Namibia’s coast is a blessing. While major companies like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Chevron are promising that Namibia will begin producing vast quantities of oil by 2030, public policy watchers are warning of lack of transparency and inadequate regulatory frameworks.
The Namibian public is used to major corruption scandals. In 2019, several government ministers ended up in jail after it emerged that they traded fishing quotas for millions in bribes. All major candidates vying for the presidency promise to root out corruption and handle Namibia’s newly discovered resource with care. Nandi-Ndaitwah, the most likely winner, seems determined to avoid oil’s curse. When Namibians cast their votes at the end of November, they will decide whom to hand keys to the State House and with it, the country’s future.
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